Tough Primaries Are a Good Thing
by db
1984. After the press successfully calls his bluff of extra-marital affairs, Sen. Gary Hart, the party’s self-anointed agent of generational change, loses any real shot at taking the nomination, much less seriously challenging, the party’s presumed leader, former-VP Walter Mondale. Mondale loses the general.
1988. Leveraging effective fundraising to build a cash advantage and a weak wider field, despite the surprising success of Rev. Jesse Jackson in some sections, Mass. Governor Michael Dukakis cruises to the Democratic nomination. Dukakis loses the general.
1992. Clinton loses Iowa, New Hampshire and several other early primary states to Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown, but eventually turns the tide with a win in Georgia and cruises to the nomination. Clinton wins the general.
2000. Bill Bradley hits the cover of Time and quickly disappears as a competitor of any real threat to then-VP Al Gore. Gore loses the general.
2004. Howard Dean, after reinvigorating the base and leading a campaign that spawns a new generation of Democratic technology activists, implodes after a third-place finish in Iowa and, with that, ends any real threat to the former front-runner Sen. Kerry. Kerry loses the general.
Now, let’s do a slight contrast and compare with recent GOP primary history:
1976. President “by accident” Gerald Ford faces a surprisingly strong bid by CA Governor Ronald Reagan in the primary. Despite this, he nearly wins the general.
1980. Bush upset the presumptive front-runner Reagan with a victory in the Iowa Caucuses and nearly defeated him in NH. Reagan wins both the primary and the general.
1988. Then-VP Bush faces Dole and a series of other candidates in the nomination, struggling against headlines that mention the “wimp factor” and the “vision thing,” as he put it, but eventually prevails. Bush wins the general.
1992. Buchanan puts up a temporary threat to incumbent President Bush. Bush sails to the nomination and tanks in the general.
1996. Feeling their royalist roots, the GOP hands the nomination to Bob Dole, who suffers nary a bleep on the campaign trail, but gets shut down in the general.
2000. George W. Bush’s campaign suffers a near-death moment when Sen. McCain defeats Bush in the NH primary. Bush wins the general.
Net net: Competition in primaries makes for a better general election candidate. Conversely, less competition makes for a worse general election candidate. So, whether you feel Clinton or Obama started this week’s fracas surrounding meeting with leaders of rogue nation’s or who is most like the current administration, remember this: It’s a good thing.
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