The Technocrat

by bk

So pardon me for calling the election on September 2 but within the last day the first polls showing Obama with 50%+ started showing up. I’ve long held that lots of America’s choose not to decide until after Labor Day. They can’t be bothered to, it’s just not in their blood like us partisan types. Every cycle just as the decidedly undecides starting tuning in to make their decision they use two events to judge the candidates – the convention acceptance speech and the Presidential candidate’s first executive decision on VP candidate. Some of the more serious undecides will watch and listen to everything, others will judge it by how others in and out of the media seems to perceive it. Depending on the year, the undecides may make the difference in a close election or simply pad the margin of victory. Ultimately, I believe turning out the base is the most important thing and by all measures the Democratic base is more enthusiastic this year than the Republican base so I’ve felt for awhile Obama would win and I’ve been looking to the undecides to provide the margin of victory. But that hasn’t been showing up in the polls yet so I’ve seen and heard a lot of hand wringing among Dems I know. It’s a natural reaction to how the last couple of elections have unfolded and I’m sure it will last until Obama takes the oath. But when the story of the 2008 Presidential Election is written, I believe the turning point will be fully encapsulated within less than 24 hours, the night of August 25th and the morning of August 26th.

More Americans tuned in for Barack Obama’s speech than tuned in for the Opening Ceremonies of the Olympics and the American Idol finales. He spoke to those who could be convinced, the 70%+ who believe we’re heading in the wrong direction. And they got a speech that knocked down the patriotism attacks while making the attackers look petty, they got policy proposals and soaring and flawless rhetoric, and they got to see a man they could believe could be President. The expectations were high and he still managed to surpass them; he passed the test.

The very next morning, the other shoe dropped. McCain had named Sarah Palin as his running mate and across America a collective, “WHO?” rang out. Over the course of the next 2 days, it became obvious that McCain’s team hadn’t done the most basic of vetting. The choice was instinctual and a political sop to the base. In another year, that might have been okay but not considering recent history like the rush to war and the move to privatize social security, and recalling Republican appointments like Michael Brown, Harriet Meirs, and Alberto Gonzales, it was all too familiar and in 1 fell swoop it undercut McCain’s main argument against Obama and re-inforced Obama’s main line of attack on McCain, that a McCain Presidency would be more of the same.

There are only really two parts to the VP decision as far as the voting public is concerned. Number 1 is the heartbeat question. Are we comfortable with this person being a heartbeat from the Presidency? And number 2 and more importantly, what the choice says about the Presidential candidate. Context is very important. Quayle was an obvious sop to the right as the right was starting to really flex its muscles. But he had been in Congress for 12 years and the Senate for the previous 6 and Bush was a sporty, healthy WASP. McCain is a 72 year who has twice battled skin cancer and Palin is the 2 year governor of Alaska with prior experience as mayor of a town of 7,000. Barack Obama’s choice of Sen. Joe Biden was a serious choice who could easily step in to the Presidency at a moment’s notice. Barack passed. Outside the 28 Percenters, those that absolutely can’t see past their partisan blinders and still support Bush, John McCain’s choice was clearly questionable and no one believes she’s ready to be a heartbeat from the Presidency. So on the first test of a President McCain, McCain failed and he failed the same as Bush, playing to the base and playing politics with the future of America.

On the night of Thursday August 25th, Senator Barack Obama showed America a vision of its future. On the morning of Friday August 26th, Senator John McCain showed America a vision of its past, the past 8 years. Within that short time, John McCain lost the election and Barack Obama won it.

At least, that’s how I believe it will be remembered.

by bk
I saw a comment on TPM by KD that suggested that if Obama hadn’t stopped the 527s, he’d be in a better position and it got me thinking about whether that’s right. I think KD is wrong and we’re actually better off so far in 2008 without the 527s because it’s harder to fight a proxy battle.

McCain’s attacks are coming from McCain not some third party “Citizens Against Celebrity” group, which is actually comprised of 5 billionaire Republicans. It’s his attack ad not some citizens exercising their First Amendment right so he can’t disown the attacks while allowing the attack to continue. Thus, he can’t enjoy the benefit from going negative without taking the hit for having done it himself. This is why I think we’ve seen the polls return to about where they were before the celebrity ads started. There was an initial benefit but then the backlash balanced it back out after another week.

Also when the attacks come from McCain directly, Obama’s campaign has only to confront McCain to respond instead of trying to take on a faceless 527. And so they are able to respond with the ads they did which point out 2 hypocrisies – the hypocrisy of the celebrity charge from McCain, of all people,and his hypocrisy in going negative as he so often said he wouldn’t. And because Obama didn’t go negative first, he’s simply responding to McCain’s ads, I believe there will be less backlash for Obama than for McCain.

If that’s the case then this will work out to a net gain for Obama and it will be very much because it wasn’t a 527 group shooting from the woods but rather John McCain, himself, in broad daylight. So everyone knows who did it and Obama has a clear target for returning fire.

by bk

In light of the 4 polls out this week showing Barack re-establishing his lead in national polls, I’d like to thank Jesse Jackson. Far from cutting Barack’s nuts off, I say he has provide Obama with the Sista Soulja moment he’s been needing.

Hmmm Trying to pivot to the center? What better opportunity than having an icon of the left all pissed off at you. And better still, it was the kind of dirt Fox loves. So Fox and the rest of the MSN play in the dirt, which is job #1 at Fox, and help Obama pivot all at once and because it’s not a policy shift, there can be no flip flop charge. It’s just Barack Obama defending himself from the left for a full news cycle for all to see.

A special thanks to Jesse for his timing, right in the heart of the the post-primary, pre-convention center shift. Could hardly have been better.

by bk

Social Security isn’t the third rail of American politics, race is and frankly we can tighten that up even more. “Race is the third rail of America.” With a short national history that includes, codifying blacks as 3/5th of a person, the Civil War and 100 years of Jim Crow, and the decimation of the Native American peoples, it is a solid line that runs thru our national psyche. And it’s pumping high voltage. In this decade in politics alone, it’s taken down Trent Lott and George Allen and Bill and Hillary got a mighty nice jolt from it in South Carolina last week.

When Bill Clinton brought up Jesse Jackson’s previous victories in SC, it was at worst awkward but I can see where people took it the way they did. That is simply the state of racial politics in America and you need to be ready for it. But if anyone has earned the benefit of the doubt on racial issues, isn’t it Bill Clinton? He has spent a lifetime in civil service on the side actually concerned with minorities rights. He didn’t get nostalgic for better days before Brown vs Board of Edu. and he didn’t let slip an obscure racial slur. He brought up that Jesse Jackson had won SC (albeit under different system and very different circumstances) twice and that he ran a good campaign and Barack has run a good campaign here and everywhere. That was all he said. The subtext, however, is wide open to interpretation.

Because race is a such a high voltage issue (and frankly so are the Clintons,) people bring tons of baggage to the subtext. If you’re especially sensitive to racial undertones, you see the effort to inject race. If you hate the Clintons, great chance to tee off on them. If you think Bill was the master, it’s very hard to believe he didn’t know exactly what he was doing. And if you’re the media, you are apparently still ready to continue peddling any anti-Clinton story you can. Maybe it’s because they hate them but it’s probably just ’cause it’s good for ratings. Either way, once the race card has been invoked it is not easily put away.

Personally, I’ve always held a generally favorable view of Jesse Jackson so 1) I don’t see that as a negative comparison and 2) it doesn’t remind me that Barack is black, I knew that by now. South Carolina democrats are over 50% black and polling was already showing a solid win for Obama so how could it benefit Hillary’s campaign in SC or afterwards? Did Bill think there were enough closet racists in SC to swing it to Hillary? It was too late to launch the “closet SC racist strategy” and actually impact the vote… if it would have even worked on the Dem side in SC. Or was he thinking it would work in Florida or beyond in NY, CA, NJ? Racist Dems in heavily multicultural states, not what I would call a swing demographic. No, he was playing the expectations game as he always does before a primary, he put on his professorial hat for the reporters and went with historical footnotes relevant to that state. Should he have compared Obama to JFK? Sure, Obama would love that but it doesn’t so much work for Bill, that’s his idol. We’ve only had one serious black presidential candidate in the entire history of our country and SC was one of the states he won twice so, yeah, his name came up.

The hardest part for anyone to believe is that Bill says anything by accident. He’s the master politician of his age he knows exactly what he is saying and doing at all times. But if he is, why would he inject race where there would be little benefit to doing so and tons of risk? And is discipline the word we really associate with Bill? I would suggest he’s masterful enough to know he can’t control race but needed a lesson in discipline and the explosion of the echo chamber since his last real race in 1992. He was attempting to lower expectations, and compared Obama to Jesse Jackson, the natural historical comparison. It was kinda awkward but not inaccurate or unflattering unless you choose to interpret it that way. Is it really offensive to compare a successful black politician with the only previous black candidate to achieved success in the presidential primaries?

It reminds me of a conversation I had with my in-laws in WI. They may be in a rural area but they are well educated, well read, and very open minded. And yet, I had to explain that simply calling someone a jew is not anti-semitic or insulting. But with the right tone, and a little bit of context, it can get there pretty quick. Comparing Barack Obama to Jesse Jackson is not in itself insulting but with the right tone and context it’s a short trip. I don’t think Bill went so far as to cross the line but I know we don’t all draw the line at exactly the same spot either. Which is why Bill might want to consider prepared and pre-approved remarks for the next few months because even the littlest asides can cause a helluva jolt if they are thought to touch the 3rd rail, race.

Side notes -
#1 – Bill’s discipline has always been a cause for concern. This and other recent events bring that right to the fore. It’s definitely a point to consider when choosing who to vote for.
#2 Considering the GOP’s stellar record of racial sensitivity, Obama may be a perfect trap candidate. How many Republican machine workers will get caught up with some racially insensitive comment when Bill’s getting it for such an innocuous statement? And will McCain be forced to apologize every time?
#3 I think the real racially insensitivity last week was when Barack was asked whether Bill was the 1st black president. It’s a cute line that been tossed around for awhile now. But to actually pose that in a question to the man who has a real chance of actually being the 1st black president, I was offended by that. Of course, Obama handled it so deftly but I still gotta think inside he was saying “No! He wasn’t! No matter what kind of friend he’s been to blacks, he’s just another link in a chain of old white men”.
#4 As a white guy, I have no doubt I have done or said things sometime somewhere, heck probably in this piece, that were construed as racist or at the very least ignorant by those of other races. I can almost guarantee (who among us is perfect?) I didn’t intend it that way. It’s an incredibly slippery slope for even the best intentioned.

by db

A little late on clean-up here, but I was traveling last week, as I am this one, so playing a bit of catch-up.

On my NH prediction: Well, missed that one. Quite significantly, in fact, but I wasn’t alone. I think it’s time for the media to stop the self-flagellation, though. The reality is that it is very tough to poll all the way up to the moment folks vote and it appears a very last-minute, by the definition of the term per haps, surge among women helped Hill. As the NYT commented, however, NH is owed a debt of gratitude by allowing the process to continue beyond its borders.

A prediction not posted I will claim credit for, anyway: Mitt and Michigan. I had a feeling it was going to swing his way. Now the pressure is on McCain to close the deal in SC, which was his Waterloo in 2000 and I have a feeling it will be very hard for him this round, given a resurgent Mitt and the significant support Huck will receive from the state’s evangelical voters.

by bk

What was that screeching sound? That was the sound of the brakes on the express train to the nomination for Barack Obama. I got caught up with Obamamentum as much as anyone after Iowa thinking if he could us that momentum to win NH then he would likely win the nomination and the White House. If he could repeat what he did in Iowa in New Hampshire, then we may really have a game changer in Obama, someone who can bring new voters out to support progressives politics. And that is something I would find very exciting and can certainly get behind. But then a strange thing happened, people in New Hampshire lined up and voted and Hillary won by three. Obama’s momentum was stopped and now we have a real race and with 2 states reporting, Hillary and Barack are all tied at one.

I think we’re going to see them all knotted up at 2 going into Super Tuesday after Obama takes South Carolina and Clinton takes Nevada. And then it’s about the organization you can muster in 22 states for the primary extravaganza that is Super Tuesday. I believe it will be competitive but ultimately Hillary takes 15 states including the big fish of New York and California. After Super Tuesday, Hillary has the momentum and battle hardened she locks down the nomination with the primaries on Feb. 19.

Well that’s all well and good but why I do believe it’s gonna go down this way? Two reasons, 1) Clintons feed off the negative energy of the media and 2) she’s found her message and it resonates.

It the 90′s it was always amazing to see how negative coverage of the Clintons and translated it into increased popularity with the public. Ultimately, Bill Clinton was a man and he was elected by the people. The media is many headed but faceless hydra which people increasing distrust and didn’t choose. So when forced to deciding who to trust, people choose the person. They did it with Bill Clinton and they did it with George Bush too. I believe the joy the media seemed to take in her defeat in Iowa and the big fuss made over her having ALMOST cried, humanized her and helped her rebound in New Hampshire as people rallied to support her.

The other reason she won was her performance in the debates on Saturday before the primary. She hit hard on the message that she is ready to begin changing things on day 1 because she’s ready for the fight change will require. Enough Democratic voters remember the difficulties experienced by Bill Clinton in his first year and some even remember the difficulties of Carter’s 1st year. They remember the time and momentum lost as the administrations got up to speed on how to work with Congress and get things done in DC. Last week, I saw Hillary getting knocked for a rally because she stayed too long, answered too many questions in too much detail. What I saw was a candidate who knew the issues right now without needing a briefing and had ideas on how to change things. Ideas honed after 15 years in DC so she also has an idea how to accomplish them. She gives the impression of someone who knows exactly what she wants to accomplish on each of her 1st 100 days. Ultimately, I think the promise of change will lose to the ability to make change happen right out of the gate.

So while it will not be the clean sweep I initially predicted, I still think Hillary Clinton wins the nomination.

As for John McCain, well I’m still looking good there so far.

by db

The obvious beneficiary will be Sen. Obama, but it will be Romney who may benefit the most. Here’s the prediction rundown for Tuesday:
- Obama will carry NH, narrowly, over Hill thanks to a disproportionate share (60%+) of the Independents
- McCain will win NH, but by a margin mirroring Obama’s over Hillary, feeling the pain of the independents moving over to the Dem primary and the fusillade of negative ads the Romney camp will let rip over the next few days
~ There’s an alternative scenario that suggests McCain will suffer so much for the loss of Independents that he loses to a resurgent Romney, but after last night’s debate pile-on I have become convinced it’s increasingly unlikely Romney will end up the victor there or, if I was being honest with myself, the nomination as a whole

by db

… and pulls back. We all know the moment, well, a solid two minutes after Edwards tagged her that Sen. Clinton got, to use one of Chris Matthews’ more abused terms, shrill. Or, as everyone else put it tonight, there were “flashes of anger.” More than anything, there was a thread of her response that smacked of entitlement. And, if I were to guess, that’s an attribute that doesn’t rub NH voters the right way. She managed to right her tone later in the debate, though, and even display some humor off of the rather amateurish “why aren’t you likable” question so it will probably matter little in the final calculation Tuesday. On the other hand, if there has been a bounce to Obama’s numbers out of IA, and some polls suggest a significant one, and independents are just now tuning in to find a reason not to support him, that particular moment is not one the Clinton campaign will enjoy being repeated in local news and online.

by db

My sense is a lot of NH’s independents are just now thinking through their decision-making. For them, tonight’s ABC debate, co-hosted and broadcast by NH’s local ABC affiliate, may play a paramount role in their thinking process.

Side bet: Tonight’s bout is a rare double-header with both Dem’s and GOPer candidates duking it out one after the other. Will NH independents stay throughout to see both parties to consider which primary will have their vote? (I see and hear a surprising number of NH voters talking about McCain vs. Obama as if that was the choice to be made Tuesday.)

Side side bet: Will today’s football play-off’s, which overlap neatly, impact the debate’s ratings? In my ideal world, it would be the reverse, but we clearly don’t live in my ideal world as candy still has calories and most light beer tastes like some hops-flavored version of Gatorade.

by db

Early indications of some post-IA momentum for Obama, but Pollster makes clear there is still some room to go before he enjoys the type of lead he had, at least according to the Des Moines Register, prior to Iowa.

My guess: Once we see all tracking polls released later today and tomorrow, reflecting surveying following IA news, Obama will have see a 5 point boost over polls prior, putting him in a dead heat.